China-US-India Relations in the Indian Ocean Region.
By Leighton G. Luke,
Manager, Indian Ocean Research Programme,
Future Directions International.
It is possible to discern both cooperative and (potentially) confrontational elements in the views of China, India and the US of each other. For example, China and the US could be allies in keeping shipping lanes open to ensure the free flow of energy supplies and trade. Both have a common interest in safeguarding the global commons – and China is probably happy to let the US continue to underwrite this task.
China and India will become increasingly important economic partners, although the longstanding disagreement over their land borders continues to cast a shadow. With a growing population, India will continue to be an important market for Chinese goods. While they are possible strategic competitors, it will increasingly be in the interests of both India and China to put aside the border dispute to see regional stability maintained.
There is the potential for a convergence of US, Chinese and Indian interests, especially in South and Central Asia and Middle East. All three powers want stability and are dependent on oil and do not want any instability to jeopardise their supply lines.
As a result, the national objectives of all three countries converge to a large degree in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean region: all want unimpeded access to shipping lanes, freedom of the global commons, maintenance of the rule of law, and an end to extremist violence.
National interests diverge in the South China Sea, however, largely because of its proximity to China; neither India nor the US has a direct territorial interest in the South China Sea (although US allies certainly do). Nevertheless, as a leading flashpoint, this is one of the more likely locations where the US and Chinese maritime capabilities may come face to face in the future.
A Chinese View of Relations with the US
China’s foreign policy suggests that, for the Communist Party leadership, maintaining the Party’s supremacy, ensuring internal stability and the maintenance of sovereignty are the top concerns. Achieving the status of a major global economic power is probably next and serves to underpin the other all-important objectives.
To achieve those objectives in the context of the Indian Ocean region, China seeks to counter what it perceives as regional US interference and remains concerned by US-Japan, US-South Korea and, increasingly, US-India developments.
Both China and the US share a common interest in keeping trade and energy flows open. On a deeper, more structural level, however, they may also, in the future, experience friction over attempts by Beijing to tilt international financial and trade norms in favour of Chinese (state-owned) businesses.
An Overlooked Competitor? Sino-Indian Relations: The View from Beijing
There is little doubt that China increasingly is aware of the Indian Ocean and the protection of its sea lines of communication. To date, however, Beijing has been prepared to use soft power, especially diplomacy, investments, loans and aid, rather than overt military force.
China will probably therefore seek to pursue a balancing act between containing a possible rival and competitor for influence and resources and encouraging an increasingly important trading partner. Beijing will also attempt to ensure, as much as possible, that the India-US relationship does not develop into an anti-China containment strategy.
Beijing will also aim to ensure that India at least understands, even if it does not support, China’s intention to be recognised as an emerging world power, especially in the economic sector. As India continues its upward trajectory, growing in confidence as a regional power with expanding bluewater naval capabilities, awareness of India in China can only increase, in contrast to its traditional neglect of the South Asian giant.
At once warily watching each other’s growing military capabilities and involvement in countries such as Sri Lanka and Burma, China and India nonetheless have a common interest in regional security, particularly stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan. On the border issue, while standoffs and even incursions are still likely from time to time and both sides are boosting their military capabilities along the disputed frontier, an outbreak of sustained hostilities appears increasingly less likely. Despite comments from the media, blogosphere and even certain sections of the establishments in both countries, Beijing and New Delhi both appear to recognise the benefits of managing tensions.
Rival and Peer Competitor: China Seen from New Delhi
In positioning itself to emerge as the dominant Indian Ocean power in the decades ahead, India is attempting to ensure that China does not gain a significant strategic foothold in the region.
The Sino-Indian rivalry is in many ways socially constructed. The two countries’ renewed interest in border talks indicate renewed efforts at, and the need for, management of the dispute. There appears to be a growing awareness that better management of the issue would benefit both countries by contributing to greater stability, thus allowing both to look to the sea and focus on expanding their naval capabilities.
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